The economic downturn is decreasing next year. Signs of recovery already exist and are becoming clearer. It is as good as all the predictors agree: the Economic Institute, the government and most banking economists.
But now, technology companies are coming and they get a lot more. According to them, Sweden's GDP growth is down from 2.5% this year to 1.0% next year.
No one – nor the Swedish business community that was recently outside the country – has so far made a pessimistic forecast. Therefore, it is not a self-evident employer line, although the technology companies belong to this camp.
Close to evaluation Instead, the Union of Officials will come to the Union, which also expects a significant slowdown next year. It is common to the two organizations that they, in whole or in part, have a membership in the manufacturing industry and perhaps earlier than others see what can happen there.
According to the head of Teknikföretagets Mats Kinnwall, the main threat is the global recession and its consequences for the Swedish export companies. It observes the structural weaknesses of the global economy, as productivity has slowly evolved from the financial crisis.
The result was a rather weak GDP growth, as compared to the previous one. More clearly, they are sluggish corporate earnings and investments, as well as moderate wage developments.
Now the danger is in the world The economy is generally weak, although the United States is even stronger than Europe. However, concerns also concern the outlook for China and other emerging countries where debt is high and the slowdown is in progress.
Sweden is particularly exposed to the global market and will soon experience a global decline. This is true not only for technology companies, although they represent about one-third of exports.
The results are also apparent in large sections of the private service sector that interact with industry or export by themselves. The public sector is also affected, partly because tax revenues are reduced.
But it must be so bad what technology companies are expecting now?
It is not self-evident: economic slowdown may go slower and slow does not need to be so deep.
However, it is important to be prepared for worse times, which can come quickly and without further warning. Sweden has been involved in it before – and almost every time it is surprised. This will not be necessary again.