There were several reasons for the ruble's resilience to the collapse of the oil market, says Anatoly Saltykov, head of SMP-Bank's strategy development department. The main negative impact on the ruble has recently been the rhetoric of sanctions in western countries – in this wave, the Russian currency has become cheaper since last week and there is now some recovery and stabilization of the dollar-ruble pair, he notes.
In addition, it was known that by the end of the year, the US Congress does not plan to look at the issue of sanctions against Russia, which prevents the negative from cheap oil, added Saltykov.
The auction of the OFZ placement held by the Russian Ministry of Finance on Wednesday influenced the ruble positively, said Loko-Bank's deputy chairman of the board, Andrey Lyushin. In addition, the ruble is stable due to the constant high balance of payments in Russia and the beginning of the tax period, which is able to provide local support for the Russian currency.
Today, in this context, the first half of the day, the ruble can boost against the dollar, Globex Bank chief analyst Viktor Veselov believes. However, the second half of the day, the decline in oil prices due to expectations of an increase in crude oil reserves in the US by 2.8 million barrels (according to Bloomberg forecast) will play against the ruble, he said. The dollar will also support the expectation of growth in US retail sales in October, which will give investors confidence in Fed interest rates, Veselov added.
The ruble remains energy-dependent in the medium term, but if average prices are kept at $ 70 a barrel, they may not follow oil prices at the moment, Saltykov admits. Of course, if the price of oil drops to $ 60 per barrel and below the ruble, he will no longer be able to ignore it and will begin to decline, he says. Markets are worrying at the December 2006 OPEC + meeting, fearing a possible increase in production to offset the impact of sanctions against Iran, Rosbank analysts said.
In addition, fears are caused by a slowdown in global oil demand due to continued trade-related conflicts. To overcome it, US President Donald Trump remains disappointed at the high oil prices, causing emotional sales.
All together cause a change in the "bullish" tendency for oil to "bearish". Oil can test levels of about $ 60 per barrel even before early December, analysts at Rosbank do not rule out. But do not forget that OPEC has described the "comfortable" price of $ 70 per barrel, so a unified solution can aim to spot vacancies and not just achieve the current balance of supply and demand, they say. The strong growth factors for the Russian currency have not yet been observed, thus maintaining the current market situation, the ruble probably will continue to collapse, Lyushin concludes.