E-commerce grew during the pandemic, but now recent Amazon sales data show it can go to the cold for great growth.
E-commerce giant Amazon disappointed investors this week. Sales revenue in the second quarter was lower than expected and the share price immediately fell by 5% in after-sales transactions.
The Amazon CEO went on to say that sales revenue will remain lower in the future as the economy reopens and sales stabilize from oversupply during the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal.
According to Virke, online shopping has grown by 50 percent so far this year. Now the adventurous development can end.
– In recent years, the growth of e-commerce has been about ten percent per year in Norway. We may have similar growth rates by 2023, but due to the jump during the pandemic, the crown growth will be large anyway, even with the lowest growth rate, says Markus Borge Heiberg, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux.
– It may look ugly with red months
“It was quite obvious that the huge growth in the retail sector was temporary,” said Harald Jachwitz Andersen, director of the Virke handel.
Virke forecasts that retail will stabilize after the pandemic. After 50 percent so far this year, 2021 will show overall growth of about 30 percent, according to the business organization.
“It may look ugly with red monthly growth rates, but the level will be higher than normal and well above what it was in 2019,” Andersen said.
American analysts were not surprised by the cold either.
Think of the clothing trade as stopping
Analyst Heiberg believes that categories such as clothing could slow down after the pandemic. Here you may have come closer to the roof during the pandemic about how much you want to shop online.
“I think the growth in e-commerce will be very categorical,” says Heiberg.
Kepler Cheuvreux analyst points out that books, music and videos are already sold for more than 50% on the internet and have been at this level for several years. Books were also the first category to be successful by Amazon in the United States.
– You have to overcome a critical mass. Then the services become so good that people use them more and you have network effects. We were falling below the critical mass in food, while food was somewhat further ahead in the United States. We can now approach a critical mass with food, says Heiberg.
It refers, among other things, to Oda, formerly Kolonial.no. It took a few billion turnovers before they reached profitability.
“At this level, food on the internet is starting to become competitive,” says Heiberg, who also points to the development of furniture and interiors as a category that has reached a critical mass during the pandemic. These can contribute to the continued strong growth of e-commerce in the future.
– Much better equipped to meet Amazon
The slowdown in e-commerce growth has not been seen in the data Virke is collecting, but Andersen believes it will come when the fear of infection and the authorities’ measures come into play.
– The interaction between store, network and other channels will be extremely important in the future and you may go to the store for inspiration, but you are still shopping from home. Then it is difficult to say that something is doing online shopping while other things are retail, says Andersen.
The fact that Norwegian retailers have connected to the internet during the pandemic, Andersen believes, could also make them better in the next big battle.
Norwegian retailers are now much better equipped to face competition from Amazon and tech giants. It was not so much in front of the shoe before the pandemic, says Andersen.
Consider that there may be fewer physical stores
“Growth potential is still there,” said Ardalan Fadai, a marketing analyst at Nets.
He believes that the growth of e-commerce will be higher than before when the pandemic ends, but lower than during the pandemic.
– We have great faith that consumers have acquired new habits. It has also become much easier and more convenient to shop online during the pandemic. “I feel like we’ve been jumping on a time machine for a few years,” says Fadai.
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