The first press conference of Kang Shin-wook
Chance of economic recession
"It's hard to say
The indicative trend confirmed and confirmed "
Opening ceremony of Commissioner Kang Shin-wook in August.
Kang Shin-wook, head of the National Statistics Service, said the second quarter of last year could have been the top of the economy and would make a formal economic crisis in the first half of next year. There is an increasing debate about whether the economy has entered a recession, so attention is focused on the final crisis of the National Statistical Service.
At a meeting with reporters in the first meal after his inauguration on December 12, Kang said: "With numerical value, it seems to have peaked in the second quarter of last year, after the autumn of 2013." I wonder if it will be around. I can not confirm the number of months, but I do not think that is the advantage. "It is very likely that the Korean economy will peak in the second quarter of last year and will go into shyness, but Kang's head of administration is" declining, It has to go with the decision of the summit. It is still difficult to say that it is a descent, "he added.
The marketing period is low to high and low to high and the National Statistical Service determines the bottom and top to determine the expansion and contraction of the game. At present, our economy belongs to the 11th traffic system, which started on the evening of March 2013. Since then, the National Statistics Service has not judged the economic situation, such as the top.
Regarding the crisis of the economy (peak, low point), Kang said: "We need to look at some indicators and watch the trend," Kang said. "If the decision is temporary or internal," We are conducting a formal procedure, including approval. " "There is time to judge such a process and there is time for the process," he said. "I will try to make judgments in the first half of next year as early as possible."
In determining the turnover point, the National Statistical Service (KNSO) first sets a turning point for the consistent indicator, the consistent cumulative spread index and the spread spread spread, and then uses economic indicators of overall size such as GDP. In addition, the Bank of Korea and the academic community will hear their views and will be formally confirmed after consultation with the National Statistical Commission.
A traffic loop
There was a lot of evidence that the cyclical fluctuation of the co-existing indicator, which is the main indicator of the economic situation, is in shrinkage for the sixth consecutive month since April. In particular, it was 98.6 in September, the lowest since June 1998 (98.5), when it was the consequence of the global financial crisis. The National Statistical Service has not disputed that the financial situation was poor, but it was necessary to analyze and review the key indicators for the formulation of the transition. Kang said, "I'm not going up and down, but I have a lot of questions from outside because I have a consistent look recently. Of course, you can not edit it later.
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Korean economy has been much more focused on the National Statistical Service's economic statistics that the economic conditions are so small that the boundaries between expansion and contraction are blurry. This is due to the fact that opinion was separated if the current era is still an extension to the top, a peak that reaches the top and a systolic that falls to the bottom. In June 2014 the top 10th circulatory system was announced in August 2011. The difference between the actual peak and the time of publication is 34 months. Based on February 2009, the launch of the 10th round, the peak was announced 64 months later. The 11th circulatory system is now 68 months old.