November 7, 2018, 14:37
The slowdown in retail sales growth in September was not surprising for analysts, who expect a modest increase over the rest of the year due to high base data for the past year. However, due to rising profits, annual turnover growth may be higher than last year.
According to the first estimate published by the Central Statistical Service (KSH) on Wednesday, retail sales rose by 4.4% in April, 5.4% on calendar effects, up 5.4% from one year earlier. In the first three quarters of the year, turnover from calendar effects was 6.5% higher than in the same period last year, with a gross index showing an increase of 6.3%.
Péter Virovácz, chief analyst at ING Bank, recalled that the market is expected to slow down, so a big surprise could not be caused by the retail sales in September, which showed the second weakest result this year. As observed since the beginning of the year, there has been a slowdown, which is reflected in a gradual decline in the average three-month yield.
In the coming months, the continued strong labor market can help maintain even more favorable dynamic growth, but Péter Virovácz is not counting on the cessation of a moderate slowdown. Retail performance in the third quarter supports the assumption that consumption remains a powerful driving force for economic growth while contributing to GDP growth.
According to Takarékbank analyst Gergely Suppan, according to the bank's expectations, retail sales rose in September, reflecting the slowdown compared with strong growth in the previous month last year.
According to Gergely Suppan, real wage growth of over 8% this year, real wage growth near the 16-year peak and a sharp increase in households' economic wealth, Gergely Suppan says the dynamic growth in retail sales may continue in the coming months . Last year's growth of 5.6% could accelerate to 6.3% this year, contributing to accelerating GDP growth.
This year's growth in turnover is in line with Takarékbank's expectations that GDP growth this year could be 4.1% higher than last year and 4.6% last year.
Nyeste Orsolya, senior analyst at Erste Bank, notes that September data remains impressive despite the slowdown. In the third quarter household consumption growth slowed somewhat in the second quarter, but domestic consumption remained the main driver of GDP growth.
Rising wages, a tight labor market and consumer confidence continue to support the continuation of markets, so Orsolya Nyeste is basically looking for strong retail numbers for the coming months.
High base figures in the last quarter of last year indicate some slowdown in volume indicators for the last quarter of this year, so the annual growth rate may return to the 4-6% band. As a result of strong domestic demand, inflation may begin to rise soon, with the external trade balance and current account surpluses falling.