Economic week: the dollar returned to $ 40, but central rates signaled the pulse of the markets


It was an unstable and somewhat tense week for the economic world, to which first, the acceleration of the exchange rate was imposed, earning profits and hedging positions, but ended with one Central Bank that once again took the central stage. The increase in the interest rate on liquidity accounts (Leliq) got it reverse the transfer of the Pesos to the North American currency and the exit of investors from shares and bonds.

The BCRA went up this Friday for the sixth consecutive session the returns paid for their short-term bank accounts exclusively for banks 49.5% e broke the upward trend of the dollar, which reached 40 cents on Wednesday in the wholesale and retail market 41 pesos in the retail lane.

"Sterilization through Leliq avoids the sharp moves towards dollarization of the portfolio of agents. In this context, monetary policy faces a limit on the reversal of the interest rate possible dollarisation that could be created in a year of elections"explained Martin Calvira, an economist at the IAE Business School of the University of Australia.

"It makes sense to expect that if dynamics of declining interest rates will be a secondary rate ", a report by the consultant reported Neix.

The US currency closed the week in which it was operating $ 40.21 for the public and $ 39.22 a wholesaler, with a weekly profit 1.6%, and still close to the maximum historical prices at the end of September. During 2019 a moderate rise of 4% is accumulating.

The renewed demand for US currency, with significant $ 900 million cash transactions on Tuesday and Wednesday, this does not mean a fall in the level of reserves international, which has remained close to the maximum record $ 67,000 million.

For actions and public titles it was a week negative which reduced the profits of a successful start of the year. The instability of the dollar hurry to receive profits and he created nervousness, though The end of the week lowered the trend and opened a wait for a stock market eager for new fundamentals to resume price recovery.

The stock index S & P Merval finished the week with one drop by 2% in Peso, at 36,716 points, and far from the maximum 2019, the 37,685 points on February 12. Measured in dollars, the top table gained 3.5%.

This worsening of dollar prices became clearer in travel of the ADR The Argentines in the New York Stock Exchanges, who say imaginative, are falling during February.

Jorge Fedio, analyst Clave Bursátil, acknowledged that "the "Technical adaptation" came at a speed and in many cases it was even tough, with significant losses and no anesthesia that they hit the ADR and, consequently, the actions of the leadership group "ByMA (Argentine Markets and Markets).

The government bonds in dollars finished the week with a slight drop and a performance difference widened by 9.5 and 12.2% per annum for dollar titles.

The prospects for Argentina's assets improved, the fall Country risk, which remained in 695 basis points.

From the outside, the momentum could also come bullish on alicaidos bonds and Argentine actions, before the expected advances in talks between the US and China on trade issues, now with the US president Donald Trump and the Chinese Vice-President Liu He as protagonists.

The two main economic and trading powers of the world are negotiating against the clock before the upcoming application of US tariffs in addition to Chinese products since March.


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